A College Football Blog by CADuck

Entering the 2026-27 season, the Big Ten boasts three straight National Championships by three different programs – finally shifting the CFB power balance back north after a long period of SEC dominance. In the first two years of the 12-team playoff, three of the four teams to reach both playoffs have come from the Big Ten in Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon (Georgia as the 4th), and Michigan won a title the season prior to the playoff expansion. Now, the Big Ten seems to have settled into relatively distinct tiers, with the strongest top end of any conference. Let’s take a look at how things shake out ahead of the season for each team, including their most important games, a potentially unexpected trap game, and my record predictions.

---

*Teams ordered at random within tiers

Tier 1 – Playoff Staples

Ohio State Buckeyes

The story for Ohio State is pretty simple – you bring back just about everyone important on offense (minus Carnell Tate & Brian Hartline), and you have a load of star departures on defense. Another year of experience for both Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith will only increase the danger the duo poses to opposing defenses, though it will be interesting to see how the rest of the wide receiver room develops after Brian Hartline took the USF head coaching job this offseason. There is still an abundance of talent at the position, so you can expect solid production behind Smith. On the defensive side, I would anticipate a regression from the past season, simply due to the number of high level starters that went to the NFL. Similar to the WR problem – this unit will still be loaded with talent, and you can expect Ryan Day & Matt Patricia to get the best out of them. A slight uptick in mistakes due to new rotations and the departure of Caleb Downs’ secondary presence may have this group out as the #1 defense, where they’ve sat the past two seasons, but I highly doubt they will fall outside the top 5.

Given the schedule they face, the Buckeyes could likely remain in the CFP conversation at 9-3 provided they score some signature wins, which they have plenty of opportunities for. Road games at Texas, Iowa, Indiana, and USC prove for a gauntlet, and throw in home matchups against Oregon and Michigan for good measure. If they reach a 10-2 record – expect them to be held in higher regard than most 11-1 teams.

• Most Important Game: @ Indiana (Week 7)
• Sneaky Trap Game: @ Iowa (Week 5)

Win/Loss Prediction: 10-2 (8-1) – Big Ten Champions

• Sportsbooks W/L line: 9.5
• NBTG Model W/L: 9.9

---

Oregon Ducks

With over 200 returning starts, the Ducks have brought back the meat and bones of their semifinal run from a year ago. What they will be missing is their two coordinators, both of whom are now head coaches at Power 4 universities – though both have been replaced via internal hires. A few departures such as Kenyon Sadiq, Dillon Thieneman, and Bryce Boettcher are significant, but they’ve brought in Koi Perich from Minnesota, and Jamari Johnson and co. look ready to take over the TE duties. It is unlikely that Oregon has entered a season with as much talent, potential, and expectations as they do this season. On top of the rising offensive and defensive coordinators, the offensive line and linebackers with be the two groups to watch. Brandon Finney and a plethora of talent in the secondary should be as good as any unit in the country, and the front four on the defensive line have returned for another season after a strong 2025. Dante Moore will have all the pressure in the world after the scouting reports on his draft stock and his regression on the biggest stages, but he will also have more help than ever, provided the new offensive line can keep him protected.

The schedule is not too tough for the Ducks this year, with the headlines being a pair of away games at USC and Ohio State, along with a home matchup against Kyle Whittingham’s Michigan, who Lanning is 2-0 against from his matchups with Utah. A first week rematch with Boise State from 2024 should be the Ducks opportunity to showcase their talent, but they have historically struggles with the Broncos. The final four games on the schedule hold the bulk of the meat, so Oregon will need to hope they can stay healthy and hungry through all 13 weeks.

• Most Important Game: @ USC (Week 4)
• Sneaky Trap Game: @ Illinois (Week 8)

Win/Loss Prediction: 11-1 (8-1)

• Sportsbooks W/L line: 10.5
• NBTG Model W/L: 10.8

---

Indiana Hoosiers

While they have brought in some great offensive players like Josh Hoover, Nick Marsh, and Turbo Richards, it’s still unlikely that the operate to the same level of success as last year’s squad. Between Fernando Mendoza’s composure and leadership, the elite play of Sarratt and Cooper Jr. out wide, and the RB duo of Hemby and Black, there is a significant amount of experience that has departed the roster. However, with Charlie Becker still in the mix and a retooling of talent, Cignetti will have his squad rolling. On the other side of the ball, DeAngelo Ponds departure leaves a rather large hole to be filled – but you can expect Bryant Haines will know how to patch it by committee even if no stars emerge in the secondary. While they will still have elite depth and conditioning under Cignetti, this team will be a bit more ‘green’ to his coaching. I wouldn’t write the cheque for a second 16-0 season just yet, but it also certainly is not out of the cards given what we’ve seen from Indiana.

The schedule is favorable for a reloading team, catching the two toughest opponents at home in Ohio State and USC, and then a pair of road trips to Michigan and Washington to round it out. If the new offense has found their identity and strengths before the Ohio State game, the Hoosiers may not be the underdogs even once this year.

• Most Important Game: Ohio State (Week 7)
• Sneaky Trap Game: @ Washington (Week 12)

Win/Loss Prediction: 11-1 (8-1)

• Sportsbooks W/L line: 10.5
• NBTG Model W/L: 10.8

---

Tier 2 – Playoff Dreamers

USC Trojans

Despite losing a pair of great pass catchers in Makai Lemon and Jakobi Lane, Jayden Maiava returns to the tutelage of Lincoln Riley for another season. Waymond Jordan is back and healthy at running back, and it simply wouldn’t be wise to doubt a Lincoln Riley led offense as his recruiting heats up. D’Anton Lynn departs after building up a decent defense, replaced by Gary Patterson as the new defensive coordinator. While I think Riley has some breathing room due to recruiting, this year’s team is certainly his strongest at USC, and the expectations have been raised as a result. Unfortunately, they do run into a rather difficult schedule this year, so the Trojans will have to fight to reach the playoffs.

Not only do the Trojans have to head to Indiana and Penn State on the road, but they also welcome Ohio State, Oregon, and Washington to LA. Throw in a trip to Camp Randall to play Wisconsin in week 8, and this team has one of the toughest six game stretches in the sport this season. Luckily, a week 0 game against San Jose State lets them add two bye weeks in the middle of those six games.

• Most Important Game: Oregon (Week 4)
• Sneaky Trap Game: @ Wisconsin (Week 8)

Win/Loss Prediction: 9-3 (6-3)

• Sportsbooks W/L line: 8.5
• NBTG Model W/L: 7.8

Michigan Wolverines

In the wake of Jim Harbaugh’s departure, Michigan football has been far from a well operated program. Ignoring the scandals plaguing the team and university, Sherrone Moore was never the right guy for the job – he was the OC for a team that relied primarily on their dominant defense. While the ground game was very strong, there was nothing dynamic that he brought to the table. Now, the shakeup has fortunately landed Kyle Whittingham, who should focus his efforts on developing Bryce Underwood and rebuilding the Wolverines defense. While I may not be picking them to win the conference, the talent is there on this roster for them to make a run with Whittingham at the helm.

The Wolverines are handed a loaded schedule, facing off against Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon, along with Iowa, Penn State, and Oklahoma. A 3-3 record through those six games would be impressive, and if they can enter week 13 with only one or two losses for The Game, it will be an incredibly high stakes clash. I think a win over Penn State and fellow first year coach Matt Campbell is crucial for the Wolverines in retaining their position atop tier two.

• Most Important Game: Penn State (Week 7)
• Sneaky Trap Game: Iowa (Week 4)

Win/Loss Prediction: 9-3 (6-3)

• Sportsbooks W/L line: 8.5
• NBTG Model W/L: 8.4

Iowa Hawkeyes

Kirk Ferentz. Questions at quarterback. A strong defense. There’s not much on paper that says this going to be a great football team, but everything about this just smells like a great Iowa Hawkeyes season. It’s far from guaranteed success when you can’t yet say exactly where the offense is going to find their production, though one would presume it is some combination of Moulton, Vonnahme, Vander Zee, or Tony Diaz along with a strong offensive line. Zach Lutmer will lead the Hawkeye’s secondary along with Deshaun Lee, which could prove very troublesome for opposing quarterbacks. If Iowa’s on your schedule, make sure your lines are prepared and get ready to be dragged into the mud. Especially at Kinnick.

Iowa runs into a tough three game stretch from weeks 4 through 6, heading to Michigan, hosting Ohio State, and then heading west to play Washington. Given how tough the Buckeye’s schedule is this year, Ferentz will be prepared to strike if they get caught overlooking his Hawkeyes. If they can go 1-2 through these three games, the only other turbulence on the schedule is a trip to Illinois in week 12.

• Most Important Game: @ Michigan (Week 4) / @ Washington (Week 6)
• Sneaky Trap Game: @ Minnesota (Week 8)

Win/Loss Prediction: 10-2 (7-2)

• Sportsbooks W/L line: 7.5
• NBTG Model W/L: 8.1

Washington Huskies

Jedd Fisch returns with Demond Williams after a bit of offseason drama regarding NIL contracts, which was a momentary spectacle but ultimately, it was great for the Huskies to retain Williams. Losing Denzel Boston to the NFL takes away a great pair of hands for Demond, and the top two running backs have left the program – replaced by Jayden Limar from Oregon. Defensively, some mediocre to solid production is replaced via recruits and the transfer portal, which could cause some added difficulties, but also could be the difference in allowing the Washington defense to break some of their bad tendencies. When the offensive line is able to give Demond time to create plays with his legs, opposing teams are going to to struggle to contain him.

Avoiding Ohio State and Michigan is a blessing on any Big Ten schedule, but Washington doesn’t get much relief, facing the other five tier one and two teams. An early road game at USC leads into a clash with Iowa the following week, and the final two weeks of the season sees Indiana coming to Seattle, followed by a trip down to Eugene to play rival Oregon. Washington will have to earn everything on the schedule this year, and I expect their week 6 game against Iowa to be the best barometer for how capable they are of handling the rest of the schedule.

• Most Important Game: @ USC (Week 5)
• Sneaky Trap Game: @ Nebraska (Week 9)

Win/Loss Prediction: 9-3 (6-3)

• Sportsbooks W/L line: 7.5
• NBTG Model W/L: 7.35

Penn State Nittany Lions

Matt Campbell and Rocco Becht arrive in State College to try and revitalize the Nittany Lions after their best roster in years crashed and burned. I’m conflicted as to my outlook on the schedule for Penn State given how easy it is – on one hand, it gives Matt Campbell a great chance at finding early success and bringing the program back towards the top of the conference. On the other hand, finding success with this schedule may not matter if they aren’t competitive with the top end of the conference. It will be a fresh start for Penn State football at the very least, and Matt Campbell seems to already be a favorite around campus.

There isn’t anything complex about this schedule at all – no big OOC matchups, just a couple of road games at Michigan and Washington, and the hosting USC for a likely white-out matchup. It won’t take much for this team to enter the Big Ten championship conversation, but their resume is likely to be a liability if they want to enter the playoff conversation at 10-2.

• Most Important Game: USC (Week 6)
• Sneaky Trap Game: @ Maryland (Week 13)

Win/Loss Prediction: 9-3 (6-3)

• Sportsbooks W/L line: 8.5
• NBTG Model W/L: 9.75

Tier 3 – Bowl Gamers & Hopefuls

Illinois Fighting Illini

The Luke Altmeyer era is over, and Bret Bielema will have Katin Houser leading the offense in 2026 behind four new offensive linemen. Illinois lands a fairly easy conference schedule, and hosts Duke in OOC play, who they beat handily a year ago. The road game in Columbus against Ohio State is unlikely to be kind to the Fighting Illini, but their next two toughest games against Oregon and Iowa both come at home. A 10-2 finish is certainly possible with this schedule, and Illinois could find themselves sneaking into the playoff conversation if things go right. This is undoubtedly my top team of tier three, and despite my record projections here, I expect Illinois to finish ahead of at least one tier two team this season.

• Most Important Game: Iowa (Week 12)
• Sneaky Trap Game: @ UCLA (Week 11)

Win/Loss Prediction: 8-4 (5-4)

• Sportsbooks W/L line: 7.5
• NBTG Model W/L: 7.65

Wisconsin Badgers

For one snowy November night, the Luke Fickell era looked like it finally might be starting to work when Wisconsin shut down Demond Williams and Washington last fall. Now, the Badgers sit in front of a conference slate that features none of Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, and Michigan, the top 4 conference teams from a year ago. They do face Notre Dame in a neutral site matchup at Lambeau Field, where they could impress simply by keeping things competitive for a quarter. Some offensive line injury issues may linger into the start of the season, but with a schedule where 8-4 is possible with @ UCLA as the marquee win, Fickell faces both opportunity and obstacle: if he cannot lead the Badgers to success with this schedule, it’s unlikely he will ever find it in Madison.

• Most Important Game: USC (Week 8)
• Sneaky Trap Game: @ UCLA (Week 7)

Win/Loss Prediction: 7-5 (5-4)

• Sportsbooks W/L line: 6.5
• NBTG Model W/L: 5.25

Minnesota Golden Gophers

P.J. Fleck enters another season with the Golden Gophers, looking to elevate them from a pair of 8-5 finishes the last two years. Minnesota has gone 5-4 in conference both times, and found themselves knocking on the door of more. Koi Perich will be missed on defense despite a regression last year, and the schedule is not easy despite avoid both Ohio State and Oregon. Minnesota has been capable of knocking off tier two ranked teams in conference play, and they may need to do so again in order to reach a third 8-5 season. Drake Lindsey returns for his sophomore season looking to improve and continue building NFL draft buzz.

• Most Important Game: @ Wisconsin (Week 13)
• Sneaky Trap Game: Mississippi State (Week 2)

Win/Loss Prediction: 6-6 (3-6)

• Sportsbooks W/L line: 6.5
• NBTG Model W/L: 5.1

Nebraska Cornhuskers

Matt Rhule brings in journeyman Anthony Colandrea to replace Dylan Raiola, who departed via the transfer portal after a season ending injury.  The team will be led by veterans, with 19 of 22 expected starters being juniors or seniors.  The conference schedule will be tough, with Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon looming.  Based on the trends of the past two years, Nebraska struggles with the upper half of the Big Ten, and they are likely to be underdogs in 6 of the 9 conference games.  I expect the week 4 trip to Michigan State to tell us how the season will go – pick up a win in East Lansing and a bowl game is reachable, struggle with the Spartans and the only wins left on the schedule may be Maryland & Rutgers.  As some tier three teams look like they are on the cusp of jumping ahead of tier two teams, Nebraska feels like they are closer to falling into the bottom tier of the conference to me.

• Most Important Game: Maryland (Week 5)
• Sneaky Trap Game: @ Michigan State (Week 4)

Win/Loss Prediction: 6-6 (3-6)

• Sportsbooks W/L line: 6.5
• NBTG Model W/L: 5.85

Maryland Terrapins

Mike Locksley is certainly a controversial figure around College Park and college football at large, led most recently by his comments on the vast differences between Marylands back-to-back 4-8 seasons.  While he certainly can make himself an easy target from the outside looking in, the internal feelings within Maryland’s football program seem to be a bit different. Locksley has been landing some of the elite talent from Maryland’s hometown recruits, and the fact that Malik Washington, Sidney Stewart, and Zahir Mathis (who suffered an unfortunate season-ending injury) are sticking around when the transfer portal is allowing players of their caliber to shop themselves for top dollar signals that there is confidence that things are trending in the right direction.  Add in 5-star Zion Elee who will likely see added work in the absence of Mathis, and this is a roster with far more talent than the average fan might realize.  The schedule isn’t easy or brutal, and an OOC matchup with James Franklin’s Hokies will make for an intriguing matchup.  This was a team that played three one score losses against the middle of the Big Ten last year prior to completely collapsing, and I think they can elevate from that standard with the added experience this season.  But maybe we’re still looking at the same struggles, and this team will pick up wins against Hampton, UConn, Rutgers, and Purdue on the way to 4-8 and a new Locksley soundbite.

• Most Important Game: UCLA (Week 4)
• Sneaky Trap Game: @ Purdue (Week 10)

Win/Loss Prediction: 6-6 (4-5)

• Sportsbooks W/L line: 4.5
• NBTG Model W/L: 4.95

Michigan State Spartans

Jonathon Smith is out after a putrid tenure, and Pat Fitzgerald is in with seemingly strong financial support from alumni and the athletic department.  While I think this hiring will be positive for the Spartans, it also highlights the significant disadvantages of hiring an idle coach with the current transfer portal.  As other new head coaches were able to bring in players from their former programs and players they had recruiting connections with, Michigan State was left searching for scraps to replace their outgoing players.  The recruiting will obviously build back up under Fitzgerald, but his few years out of coaching significantly limited the network of recruits he was able to work with entering his first year.  At a glance, I believe there are 7 winnable games on the Spartans schedule, though they may be favored in fewer than half of those.  A week 7 game against Northwestern will be important for program pride – Pat Fitzgerald looks to defeat his old team, and the Spartans will want to shut down former QB Aiden Chiles in his return to East Lansing.  A bowl game appearance is a reasonable target in year one, though I wouldn’t be surprised if there are talent and personnel deficiencies which hold Michigan State back from that goal.

• Most Important Game: Nebraska (Week 4)
• Sneaky Trap Game: Northwestern (Week 7)

Win/Loss Prediction: 5-7 (3-6)

• Sportsbooks W/L line: 4.5
• NBTG Model W/L: 4.95

Tier 4 – Any Win Is A Good Win

UCLA Bruins

I’m not sure Bob Chesney is going to find life at UCLA easy to adjust to.  He departs James Madison, a program that has been receiving significant investment and support from the university & athletic department since they rose to the FBS level in 2022, as well as having inherited a Curt Cignetti program, and that guy just might know how to build a program up.  At UCLA, things have been a dumpster fire, ranging from Chip Kelly’s lack of recruiting and the contempt for him within the program, Deshaun Foster being a horrible football coach in every single way possible, to the decision to leave a PAC12 where this team could find some success to join the Big Ten, where they are outclassed and having to pay a significant sum to California annually as a result.  Throw in the fact that they chose to retain none of the offensive staff who helped QB Nico Iamaleava find success after Foster’s firing, and I’m not sure why there would be anything positive to look at here.  Chesney has brought in a solid group of players, including some of his JMU stars such as Wayne Knight. The schedule is not favorable, and OOC games at California and hosting San Diego State are both losable.  Luckily, the Bruins face their lower end conference competition at home, which is always an advantage given the distance and time zone change.  With all of that said, UCLA is probably the Big Ten team I am least confident in predicting.  There is enough talent here to find success, and there are also enough problems for the team to be a disaster.  If Chesney can put out some of the fires that having been burning for nearly a decade, this team can surprise a lot of people and cause a bit of a shake up to the conference power structure.

• Most Important Game: Wisconsin (Week 7)
• Sneaky Trap Game: Michigan State (Week 8)

Win/Loss Prediction: 3-9 (2-7)

• Sportsbooks W/L line: 6.5
• NBTG Model W/L: 4.8

Northwestern Wildcats

A fancy new stadium is sure to have Northwestern fans excited for the season, even if the team looks to be headed for another bottom tier finish in conference play.  Chip Kelly arrives to lead the offense with transfer Aiden Chiles at QB.  The Wildcats seemed to find success recently as a possession heavy team, burning clock and limiting their opponents possessions and chances to score.  It will be interesting to see how that blends with the style of Chip Kelly, who is not exactly known for slow or patient offensive schemes.  There is a bit more depth and experience to this 2026 team, but it isn’t jumping out ahead of any conference competition in terms of talent.  Throw this squad into a brutal conference schedule with trips to Indiana, Oregon, and Ohio State, and the outlook isn’t overly positive.  A week 5 clash with Penn State will be the first at Ryan Field, and perhaps the Wildcats can collect a signature win in what is sure to be an exciting environment.  Beating Deion’s Colorado in OOC play will open up some more possibilities, but they likely will need a win at either Michigan State or Minnesota in order to reach a bowl game.

• Most Important Game: @ Michigan State (Week 7)
• Sneaky Trap Game: Colorado (Week 3)

Win/Loss Prediction: 4-8 (1-8)

• Sportsbooks W/L line: 5.5
• NBTG Model W/L: 5.7

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

Greg Schiano’s Rutgers is an interesting program.  They’ve certainly been stronger with him in the coaches seat, but they are still clearly in the bottom tier of the Big Ten.  The offense has been the stronger side of the ball in recent years, and not only due to how horrible the defense has been.  A pair of games against Washington the past two years gave the Scarlet Knights a thrilling Friday Night win, and a heartbreaking shootout where they could not keep up with Demond Williams.  A home game against Michigan State is likely the most winnable conference game, but I think they will be thoroughly beat down by the schedule by that week 13 game.  Playing at Boston College in week 2 is likely the best chance to pick up a P4 win this season, and a loss there likely keeps this as a 2-win team at best.  Schiano has not gone winless in conference play during his second Scarlet Knights tenure, but this season is likely to challenge that.

• Most Important Game: Michigan State (Week 13)
• Sneaky Trap Game: @ Boston College (Week 2)

Win/Loss Prediction: 3-9 (0-9)

• Sportsbooks W/L line: 4.5
• NBTG Model W/L: 4.95

Purdue Boilermakers

Barry Odom and Ryan Browne return for another season with the Boilermakers after a 2-10 campaign.  Things are bleak for Purdue, who at least used to have their main rivals, Indiana, down at the bottom of the conference as well.  Now, as Indiana soars as National Champions, Purdue is fighting the battle of trying not to be the single worst power conference team.  Picking up games against Wake Forest and Notre Dame in OOC play is commendable, but I don’t think it benefits this program at all when it means they may only pick up a single win on the season.  Wake Forest will be a winnable game, but Purdue is unlikely to be viewed as the better team entering the game.  It’s possible that the added experience will help this team to perform better, but the reality is that they are at a talent disadvantage against every team on the schedule other than Indiana State.  Maybe the Boilermakers pick up a win against Maryland or Wisconsin when they come to West Lafayette, but I really don’t see anything positive ahead for this group.  While the rest of tier three and four seem to be at least flirting with improvements, I don’t think Purdue is moving anywhere from their spot at the bottom of the conference.

• Most Important Game: Maryland (Week 10)
• Sneaky Trap Game: Wake Forest (Week 2)

Win/Loss Prediction: 1-11 (0-9)

• Sportsbooks W/L line: 3.5
• NBTG Model W/L: 3.45